The first big 2026 holiday forecasts are in, and they agree on one thing: online sales will grow faster than retail overall. Adobe expects a record $275.1 billion in US online spending in November and December, and Deloitte expects e-commerce to grow roughly twice as fast as total holiday retail. Here is what each forecaster said, where they differ, and what it means for marketplace sellers planning Q4.

What the forecasters said

Adobe (Sept 28, 2026)

Adobe forecasts US online sales of $275.1 billion from November 1 to December 31, 2026, up 6.7% year over year. It expects Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) to bring in $47.5 billion, up 7.4%, with Cyber Monday on November 30 the biggest single day:

Adobe also expects mobile to account for 57.4% of online spend over the season, buy now, pay later spending of $21.3 billion (up 6.6%), and AI-driven traffic to retail sites to rise 130% year over year. By category, it forecasts electronics at $63.3 billion (up 5.9%, with discounts peaking at 30%), furniture at $33.4 billion (up 7.3%) and grocery at $26.1 billion (up 10.3%). Adobe says the forecast is based on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites.

Deloitte (Sept 10, 2026)

Deloitte forecasts total holiday retail sales of $1.70–$1.71 trillion for November 2026 through January 2027, up 4.0%–4.8%, and e-commerce sales of $316.1–$318.9 billion, up 7.5%–8.4%. Deloitte expects disposable personal income to grow 4.5%–5.2% over the season and notes that value-seeking behavior remains common across income levels.

eMarketer and Salesforce

According to Talk Business & Politics (Sept 17, 2026), eMarketer expects holiday retail sales to grow 4.1%, up from 2.7% in 2025, with online sales passing $300 billion for the first time and mobile accounting for about 58% of online sales. Salesforce reported that consumer pessimism rose 16% year over year.

Forecaster	What is measured	Period	Forecast
Adobe	US online sales	Nov 1–Dec 31	$275.1B, +6.7%
Deloitte	E-commerce sales	Nov–Jan	$316.1–$318.9B, +7.5% to +8.4%
Deloitte	Total holiday retail	Nov–Jan	$1.70–$1.71T, +4.0% to +4.8%
eMarketer	Total holiday retail	Holiday season	+4.1%

The totals differ mainly because each firm measures a different period and definition of "online" sales, so compare growth rates rather than dollar amounts.

What it means for sellers (our analysis)

• Online keeps taking share. Every forecast has e-commerce growing faster than retail overall. Sellers who are in stock with fast delivery should capture more than their share of growth.
• Shoppers are cautious, not absent. Weak sentiment plus value-seeking means discounts, bundles and clear value messaging will matter more than ever.
• Cyber Week is the peak, but not the whole season. Cyber Week is only part of Adobe's $275.1 billion, so plan steady demand from early November to mid-December, not just one weekend.
• Mobile and AI discovery change the funnel. With most spending on phones and AI shopping assistants growing fast, listings need clear titles, complete attributes and images that work on a small screen.
• BNPL supports higher-ticket items. If your price is above $100, check whether your marketplace offers installment options at checkout and mention them where allowed.

Q4 action checklist

1. Set your forecast. Take last year's November–December sales and apply a realistic growth rate by channel, then order inventory to cover it plus a safety buffer.
2. Book inbound early. Carrier peak surcharges and marketplace inbound deadlines both land in October.
3. Plan Cyber Week offers now. Decide deals, budgets and bundles per SKU, and submit deals by each platform's deadline.
4. Optimize for mobile. Check your top listings on a phone: main image, title length and first bullet points.
5. Complete product attributes so search engines and AI shopping tools can match your products to questions.
6. Scale ads gradually from early November and hold budget in reserve for Cyber Week.

Tip: Forecasts describe the market, not your store. Use them to sanity-check your plan, then track your own daily sales against it.

How Atronia Innovations helps

We build Q4 plans across Amazon, Walmart and TikTok Shop: forecasts, inventory timing, deals and ad budgets. Start with our October event prep plan, or talk to our team about your holiday season.

Sources

• Adobe — U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY (Sept 28, 2026)
• Deloitte — Deloitte Forecasts Holiday Retail Sales to Reach $1.70 Trillion to $1.71 Trillion (Sept 10, 2026)
• Talk Business & Politics — Early holiday predictions call for a 4.1% rise in retail sales (Sept 17, 2026)

2026 年节日季的几份重磅预测已经出炉，结论高度一致：线上销售增速将高于整体零售。Adobe 预计 11–12 月美国线上消费将创下 2,751 亿美元新高，德勤则预计电商增速约为节日季零售整体增速的两倍。下面整理各家预测、差异所在，以及对平台卖家 Q4 规划的意义。

各机构怎么说

Adobe（2026 年 9 月 28 日）

Adobe 预测，2026 年 11 月 1 日至 12 月 31 日美国线上销售额将达 2,751 亿美元，同比增长 6.7%。其中“网络周”（感恩节至网络星期一）预计 475 亿美元，增长 7.4%；11 月 30 日的网络星期一是全年最大单日：

Adobe 还预计：整个节日季移动端占线上消费的 57.4%；“先买后付”（BNPL）消费 213 亿美元，增长 6.6%；AI 带来的零售网站流量同比增长 130%。分类目看，电子产品 633 亿美元（增长 5.9%，折扣最高 30%），家具 334 亿美元（增长 7.3%），食品杂货 261 亿美元（增长 10.3%）。Adobe 表示，预测基于对美国零售网站超过 1 万亿次访问的分析。

德勤（2026 年 9 月 10 日）

德勤预测，2026 年 11 月至 2027 年 1 月美国节日季零售总额为 1.70–1.71 万亿美元，增长 4.0%–4.8%；电商销售额为 3,161–3,189 亿美元，增长 7.5%–8.4%。德勤预计同期个人可支配收入增长 4.5%–5.2%，并指出各收入层级的消费者普遍在“精打细算”。

eMarketer 与 Salesforce

据 Talk Business & Politics（2026 年 9 月 17 日）报道，eMarketer 预计节日季零售增长 4.1%（2025 年为 2.7%），线上销售额首次突破 3,000 亿美元，移动端约占线上的 58%。Salesforce 则发现消费者悲观情绪同比上升 16%。

机构	统计口径	时间段	预测
Adobe	美国线上销售	11 月 1 日–12 月 31 日	2,751 亿美元，+6.7%
德勤	电商销售	11 月–次年 1 月	3,161–3,189 亿美元，+7.5% 至 +8.4%
德勤	节日季零售总额	11 月–次年 1 月	1.70–1.71 万亿美元，+4.0% 至 +4.8%
eMarketer	节日季零售总额	节日季	+4.1%

各家金额不同，主要是统计时间段和“线上”定义不同，比较时建议看增速而不是绝对金额。

我们的解读

• 线上继续抢份额：所有预测都认为电商增速高于零售整体。有货、配送快的卖家，拿到的增长会超过平均水平。
• 消费者谨慎但仍在买：信心偏弱加上追求性价比，折扣、组合装和清晰的价值表达比以往更重要。
• 网络周是高峰，但不是全部：网络周只占 Adobe 预测总额的一部分，要按 11 月初到 12 月中旬的持续需求来备货和投放，而不是只押一个周末。
• 移动端和 AI 导购改变了流量入口：大部分消费发生在手机上，AI 购物助手流量快速增长，Listing 需要清晰的标题、完整的属性和适合小屏幕的图片。
• BNPL 利好高客单产品：售价超过 100 美元的产品，可以确认平台结账页是否支持分期，并在规则允许的地方提及。

Q4 行动清单

1. 做销量预测：以去年 11–12 月销量为基础，按渠道套用合理增速，再加上安全库存来下单。
2. 尽早安排入仓：快递旺季附加费和各平台入仓截止日都集中在 10 月。
3. 现在就规划网络周活动：按 SKU 确定折扣、预算和组合装，并在各平台截止日前提报。
4. 优化移动端展示：用手机检查核心 Listing 的主图、标题长度和前几条五点描述。
5. 补全商品属性：让搜索引擎和 AI 购物工具能把你的产品和买家问题匹配上。
6. 广告逐步放量：11 月初开始逐步加预算，并为网络周预留预算。

小提示：预测描述的是大盘，不是你的店铺。用它来校验你的计划，然后每天用自己的销售数据跟踪。

Atronia Innovations 能帮你什么

我们为客户制定覆盖亚马逊、沃尔玛和 TikTok Shop 的 Q4 方案：销量预测、备货节奏、活动和广告预算。可以先看10 月大促备战清单，或联系我们聊聊你的节日季计划。

信息来源

• Adobe — U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY（2026 年 9 月 28 日）
• Deloitte — Deloitte Forecasts Holiday Retail Sales to Reach $1.70 Trillion to $1.71 Trillion（2026 年 9 月 10 日）
• Talk Business & Politics — Early holiday predictions call for a 4.1% rise in retail sales（2026 年 9 月 17 日）