US shoppers kept spending in September, and online and other nonstore retailers kept growing faster than retail overall. On October 15, 2026, the US Census Bureau reported advance retail and food services sales of $745.0 billion for September, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier. Nonstore retailers, the category that includes e-commerce, were up 8.2% year over year. Here is what the numbers say going into the holiday quarter.

The headline numbers

From the Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026 (seasonally adjusted, not adjusted for prices):

Measure	September 2026	vs August 2026	vs September 2025
Total retail & food services	$745.0 billion	+0.8% (±0.4%)	+6.3% (±0.5%)
Excluding autos & gasoline	$537.2 billion	+0.2% (not statistically significant)	+5.0%
Nonstore retailers	$124.3 billion	+0.3%	+8.2%
Gasoline stations	$68.0 billion	+6.4%	+28.1%

The Census Bureau also revised August's monthly gain up to 1.3% from 1.1%. For the July–September quarter, total sales were up 5.5% from a year earlier and nonstore sales were up 7.5%. Not adjusted for seasonality, nonstore retailers sold $1.046 trillion in the first nine months of 2026, up 8.0% from the same period of 2025.

Gasoline was a big part of the monthly gain. Reuters, in a report carried by The Detroit News (Oct 15, 2026), said sales beat expectations in September "on higher gasoline prices." The Census data show why: gasoline station sales jumped 6.4% in the month, while sales excluding autos and gas rose just 0.2%, a change the Census Bureau says is not statistically different from zero.

Which categories grew

Sporting goods and hobby stores, electronics and appliance stores, and nonstore retailers grew fastest among the major categories. General merchandise stores, which include warehouse clubs and supercenters, grew 4.2%, and health and personal care stores fell 1.2%. Note that "nonstore retailers" includes online sellers and mail order but also other businesses without stores, so it is a close but not exact proxy for e-commerce. The narrower "electronic shopping and mail-order houses" line is not available in the advance report for September; in August it was $116.7 billion, seasonally adjusted.

A second read: the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which uses card transaction data rather than a survey, was released on October 8. It put September core retail sales (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) at $453.1 billion, up 0.27% from August and 3.73% from a year earlier. The two measures differ in scope and method, but both point to continued, moderate growth outside gasoline.

What it means for sellers (our analysis)

Online keeps taking share. With nonstore sales up 8.2% against 6.3% for all retail and food services, and 5.0% excluding autos and gas, the shift to online buying continued through September. That supports planning for a strong online holiday season; Adobe had forecast US online spending of $95.8 billion for October alone, up 8% year over year, according to MediaPost (Oct 5, 2026).

Underlying demand is steady, not booming. Excluding autos and gas, monthly growth was flat in statistical terms. Price-sensitive shoppers will compare deals, as Prime Big Deal Days showed; see our Prime Big Deal Days results.

Category matters. Electronics and sporting goods/hobby categories showed the strongest growth. If you sell in these areas, make sure inventory and ad budgets can keep up through December.

Watch costs as well as sales. Higher gasoline prices also feed into carrier fuel surcharges, which change weekly. Recheck your shipping cost per order heading into peak.

Checklist for Q4

1. Compare your September year-over-year growth with the 8.2% nonstore benchmark.
2. Review inventory cover for top SKUs through mid-December.
3. Recheck margins after fuel surcharges and peak fees.
4. Plan deals with a clear discount floor per SKU.
5. Note the next Census release date: November 17, 2026 (October data).

How Atronia Innovations can help

We help brands and factories plan Q4 on Amazon, Walmart and TikTok Shop, from forecasting and inventory to ads and shipping. Talk to our team about your holiday plan.

Sources

• US Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026 (Oct 15, 2026)
• NRF — CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, September 2026 (Oct 8, 2026)
• The Detroit News (Reuters) — US retail sales beat expectations in September on higher gasoline prices (Oct 15, 2026)
• MediaPost — Report: Amazon Prime Big Deal Days to reach $9.9B (Oct 5, 2026)

美国消费者 9 月继续花钱，而且网购等无店铺零售的增速继续跑赢整体零售。2026 年 10 月 15 日，美国人口普查局公布 9 月零售与餐饮销售预估为 7,450 亿美元，环比增长 0.8%，同比增长 6.3%；包含电商在内的“无店铺零售”同比增长 8.2%。下面看看进入假日季前，这组数据说明了什么。

核心数据

来自美国人口普查局《2026 年 9 月零售与餐饮销售预估》（经季节调整，未经价格调整）：

指标	2026 年 9 月	环比	同比
零售与餐饮合计	7,450 亿美元	+0.8%（±0.4%）	+6.3%（±0.5%）
剔除汽车和汽油	5,372 亿美元	+0.2%（统计上不显著）	+5.0%
无店铺零售	1,243 亿美元	+0.3%	+8.2%
加油站	680 亿美元	+6.4%	+28.1%

人口普查局还把 8 月环比增幅从 1.1% 上修至 1.3%。7–9 月三个月合计，总销售同比增长 5.5%，无店铺零售增长 7.5%。未经季节调整，2026 年前九个月无店铺零售销售额达 1.046 万亿美元，同比增长 8.0%。

汽油是当月增长的重要推手。据《底特律新闻》转载的路透社报道（2026 年 10 月 15 日），9 月零售销售“因汽油价格上涨”而超出预期。人口普查局数据也印证了这一点：加油站销售环比大涨 6.4%，而剔除汽车和汽油后的销售仅增长 0.2%，人口普查局称这一变化在统计上与零无显著差异。

哪些品类在增长

在主要业态中，体育用品与爱好、电子与家电、无店铺零售增长最快；综合商品（含仓储会员店和大卖场）增长 4.2%；健康与个人护理商店下降 1.2%。注意，“无店铺零售”除了网购和邮购，还包括其他没有门店的业态，是电商的近似指标而非精确口径。更窄的“网购与邮购”细分项在 9 月预估中未公布，8 月经季节调整为 1,167 亿美元。

另一组数据：CNBC/NRF 零售监测

基于刷卡交易数据（而非调查）的 CNBC/NRF 零售监测于 10 月 8 日发布，显示 9 月核心零售销售（剔除汽车、汽油和餐饮）为 4,531 亿美元，环比增长 0.27%，同比增长 3.73%。两组数据口径和方法不同，但都显示汽油之外的消费在温和增长。

我们的解读

线上继续抢份额。无店铺零售同比增长 8.2%，高于零售与餐饮整体的 6.3% 和剔除汽车与汽油后的 5.0%，网购渗透率在 9 月继续提升。这支持对线上假日季的乐观预期：据 MediaPost（2026 年 10 月 5 日）报道，Adobe 预测仅 10 月美国线上消费就将达 958 亿美元，同比增长 8%。

基本面稳，但不火爆。剔除汽车和汽油后，环比增长在统计上接近持平。价格敏感的消费者会比价，秋季 Prime 大促已经说明了这一点，见我们的《秋季 Prime 大促复盘》。

品类差异明显。电子产品、体育与爱好类增长最强。做这些品类的卖家，要确保库存和广告预算能撑到 12 月。

既看销售，也看成本。油价上涨也会传导到承运商每周调整的燃油附加费。进入旺季前，重新核算每单运费。

Q4 行动清单

1. 把你 9 月的同比增速与 8.2% 的无店铺零售基准对比。
2. 检查主力 SKU 到 12 月中旬的库存覆盖。
3. 计入燃油附加费和旺季费用后，重新核算毛利。
4. 为每个 SKU 设定清晰的折扣底线再规划促销。
5. 记下人口普查局下一次发布日期：2026 年 11 月 17 日（10 月数据）。

Atronia Innovations 能帮你什么

我们帮助品牌和工厂规划亚马逊、沃尔玛和 TikTok Shop 的 Q4，从销量预测、备货到广告和物流。欢迎联系我们的团队，聊聊你的旺季计划。

信息来源

• US Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026（2026 年 10 月 15 日）
• NRF — CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, September 2026（2026 年 10 月 8 日）
• The Detroit News（路透社）— US retail sales beat expectations in September on higher gasoline prices（2026 年 10 月 15 日）
• MediaPost — Report: Amazon Prime Big Deal Days to reach $9.9B（2026 年 10 月 5 日）