Two major consumer surveys landed in late October, and they tell slightly different stories heading into Black Friday. The Conference Board's index jumped 7.5 points in October, while the University of Michigan's sentiment index stayed near a record low. For sellers, the message is the same: shoppers will spend, but they are very price-sensitive.

Conference Board: a rebound in October

According to The Conference Board's release (Oct 27, 2026):

• The Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100), up from 84.2 in September, returning to June levels.
• The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4; the Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6, which the release says "only partially" reversed three straight monthly declines.
• 26.7% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," up from 24.3%; 21.4% said jobs were "hard to get," unchanged.
• Average 12-month inflation expectations eased but stayed elevated at 5.8%.

Economist Fergus McCormick linked the gain to easing gasoline prices but warned that "consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that's persisted over the past few years." He added that "consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months," and that planned purchases of electronics such as smartphones, PCs, laptops and tablets fell by more than 1% on a six-month average basis.

University of Michigan: still near the bottom

The University of Michigan's final October results show the Index of Consumer Sentiment at 48.0, essentially flat from 48.1 in September and 10.4% below October 2025. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6%, and the survey says "purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy." ABC News (Oct 23, 2026) noted the reading is the second lowest numerically in the survey's 74-year history.

Indicator	September	October	Source
Conference Board Consumer Confidence	84.2	91.7	Conference Board
Jobs "plentiful"	24.3%	26.7%	Conference Board
12-month inflation expectations (CB)	—	5.8%	Conference Board
UMich consumer sentiment	48.1	48.0	University of Michigan
UMich year-ahead inflation expectations	4.6%	4.7%	University of Michigan

Why the two surveys differ

The Conference Board survey leans more on views of the job market and business conditions, which improved in October. The University of Michigan survey puts more weight on personal finances and buying conditions, where high prices and borrowing costs weigh heavily. That is why one index can rise sharply while the other stays flat. For retailers, the Michigan reading on purchasing power is a useful warning: even confident shoppers are watching their budgets.

Dates to watch in November

• Nov 12: Walmart's first holiday deals event starts (see our Walmart Black Friday article).
• Nov 27 and Nov 30: Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
• Late November: the next Conference Board release, which will show whether October's rebound held.

What it means for sellers (our analysis)

Demand is there, but it's price-led. Confidence improved from a very weak September, yet both surveys show consumers frustrated by prices. Combined with NRF's $1 trillion holiday forecast, expect a holiday where shoppers buy, but wait for deals and compare hard.

Electronics and big-ticket items need sharper offers. Planned spending on durable goods, including electronics, fell. Sellers in these categories should prepare strong Black Friday promotions, bundles and clear value messaging rather than relying on full-price sales.

Watch cash flow and inventory. With sentiment volatile, avoid overcommitting to inventory that only sells at full price. Keep a clearance plan for January.

Lead with value. Price-per-unit, multipacks, free shipping thresholds and gift bundles under $25 or $50 fit how stretched shoppers think.

Holiday checklist

1. Set Black Friday and Cyber Monday prices that beat your 30-day average clearly.
2. Build bundles and multipacks for gift-giving price points.
3. Highlight value in titles and images: count, size, savings.
4. Keep ad budgets flexible and shift spend to products that convert.
5. Plan January clearance for slow sellers now.

How Atronia Innovations can help

We plan holiday pricing, promotions and ads for brands on Amazon, Walmart and TikTok Shop. Talk to our team about your Black Friday plan.

Sources

• The Conference Board — US consumer confidence increased in October (Oct 27, 2026)
• University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers — Final results for October 2026
• ABC News — Consumer sentiment nears all-time low ahead of midterms (Oct 23, 2026)

10 月下旬公布的两项重要消费者调查，在黑五前给出了略有不同的信号：世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的信心指数 10 月大涨 7.5 点，而密歇根大学的消费者信心指数仍徘徊在历史低位附近。对卖家来说，结论是一样的：消费者会花钱，但对价格非常敏感。

世界大型企业联合会：10 月反弹

据世界大型企业联合会发布（2026 年 10 月 27 日）：

• 消费者信心指数上升 7.5 点至 91.7（1985=100），9 月为 84.2，回到 6 月水平。
• 现状指数上升 8.6 点至 120.4；预期指数上升 6.9 点至 72.6，发布称这"仅部分"扭转了连续三个月的下滑。
• 26.7% 的消费者认为工作"好找"，高于 24.3%；21.4% 认为"难找"，持平。
• 未来 12 个月平均通胀预期回落，但仍处于 5.8% 的高位。

经济学家 Fergus McCormick 把回升归因于汽油价格回落，但提醒"消费者信心仍处于过去几年的长期下行趋势中"。他还表示，"消费者计划在未来六个月减少服务和耐用品支出"；按六个月移动平均计算，智能手机、电脑、笔记本和平板等电子产品的计划购买下降超过 1%。

密歇根大学：仍在谷底附近

密歇根大学 10 月终值显示，消费者信心指数为 48.0，与 9 月的 48.1 基本持平，比 2025 年 10 月低 10.4%。一年期通胀预期从 4.6% 小幅升至 4.7%，调查称"购买力仍主导着消费者对经济的看法"。据 ABC 新闻（2026 年 10 月 23 日），这一读数是该调查 74 年历史上数值第二低的。

指标	9 月	10 月	来源
世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数	84.2	91.7	Conference Board
认为工作"好找"	24.3%	26.7%	Conference Board
12 个月通胀预期（CB）	—	5.8%	Conference Board
密歇根大学消费者信心指数	48.1	48.0	密歇根大学
密歇根大学一年期通胀预期	4.6%	4.7%	密歇根大学

两项调查为何不同

世界大型企业联合会的调查更侧重就业市场和商业环境的判断，这两项 10 月都有改善；密歇根大学的调查更看重个人财务和购买条件，而高物价和借贷成本对此压力很大。这就是为什么一个指数大涨、另一个持平。对零售商来说，密歇根调查关于购买力的结论是个提醒：即使有信心的消费者，也在精打细算。

11 月值得关注的日期

• 11 月 12 日：Walmart 首场假日促销开始（见我们的 Walmart 黑五文章）。
• 11 月 27 日和 30 日：黑色星期五和网络星期一。
• 11 月下旬：世界大型企业联合会下一期数据，看 10 月的反弹能否持续。

我们的解读

需求还在，但由价格驱动。信心从很弱的 9 月有所回升，但两项调查都显示消费者对价格不满。结合 NRF 1 万亿美元假日季预测，预计今年假日季消费者会买，但会等折扣、货比三家。

电子产品和大件需要更有力的优惠。耐用品（含电子产品）计划支出下降。这些品类的卖家应准备有力度的黑五促销、组合装和清晰的性价比卖点，而不是指望原价销售。

关注现金流和库存。情绪波动大，不要押注只能原价卖出的库存，提前准备 1 月清仓方案。

主打性价比。单价、多件装、包邮门槛、25 或 50 美元以下礼品组合，更符合手头紧的消费者的思路。

假日季清单

1. 黑五和网一价格要明显低于近 30 天均价。
2. 围绕送礼价位做组合装和多件装。
3. 在标题和图片中突出性价比：数量、规格、优惠幅度。
4. 广告预算保持灵活，把花费转向转化好的商品。
5. 现在就规划滞销品的 1 月清仓。

Atronia Innovations 能帮你什么

我们为 Amazon、Walmart、TikTok Shop 上的品牌规划假日季定价、促销和广告。联系我们聊聊你的黑五计划。

信息来源

• The Conference Board — US consumer confidence increased in October（2026 年 10 月 27 日）
• 密歇根大学消费者调查 — 2026 年 10 月终值
• ABC News — Consumer sentiment nears all-time low ahead of midterms（2026 年 10 月 23 日）