The National Retail Federation expects another trillion-dollar holiday season. On October 15, 2026, NRF forecast that US retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, faster than last year's 3.1%. Online forecasts released by other firms point to growth roughly twice as fast. Here is what NRF said, how it compares with other forecasts, and what it means for sellers.

This follows our earlier roundup of 2026 holiday e-commerce forecasts from Adobe, Deloitte and eMarketer; NRF's forecast was not yet out when we published it.

What NRF forecast

NRF holiday measure	2025 actual	2026 forecast
Holiday retail sales (Nov 1–Dec 31)	$972 billion (+3.1%)	$1.013 trillion (+4.2%)
Seasonal hiring	About 356,000	325,000–375,000

Sources: Chain Drug Review (Oct 15, 2026), WWD via Yahoo Finance (Oct 15, 2026) and Home Textiles Today (Oct 15, 2026). NRF's holiday figures exclude auto dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

• Part real growth, part prices. WWD reported that nearly half of the growth comes from real consumer spending, with inflation accounting for the rest. Home Textiles Today put real growth at about 2% and said NRF expects core goods inflation to average 2.6% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025.
• A split consumer. NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said "the divide in spending is becoming more pronounced," and that the experience of individual households will vary significantly.
• Still prioritizing the holidays. NRF CEO Matthew Shay said: "Consumers continue to prioritize the holiday season while carefully managing their finances."

How it compares with online forecasts

WWD gathered several other forecasts alongside NRF's. They measure different things over different periods, but the direction is the same: online is expected to grow faster than retail overall.

Deloitte, also cited by WWD, expects US holiday e-commerce of $316.1–$318.9 billion for November 2026 through January 2027, up 7.5%–8.4%, against total retail growth of 4%–4.8%. Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US online spending in November and December, up 6.7%.

A shorter view of the calendar

NRF's season runs from November 1 to December 31. Within it, the key dates for online sellers are Thanksgiving on November 26, Black Friday on November 27 and Cyber Monday on November 30, 2026. Because Thanksgiving falls relatively late, there are less than four weeks between Cyber Monday and Christmas, which leaves less time to restock bestsellers and less room for shipping delays. Marketplace inventory deadlines for Black Friday week usually fall in October, so the decisions that matter most are being made now, not in late November.

What it means for sellers (our analysis)

Growth is there, but some of it is price. With about half of NRF's 4.2% coming from inflation, unit volume may grow less than revenue. Plan inventory on units, not just dollars.

Online should outpace stores again. Every online forecast above sits well above NRF's total, and September Census data showed nonstore sales up 8.2% year over year; see our September retail sales article. Make sure your ads, inventory and customer service can handle that pace through December.

Know which shopper you serve. A more divided consumer means value-focused shoppers will chase deals while higher-income shoppers keep spending. Price-sensitive products need sharp offers; premium products need strong content and fast delivery.

Plan for fewer helping hands. Seasonal hiring could be lower than last year's 356,000 at the low end of NRF's range. If you rely on 3PLs or carriers, confirm their peak capacity and cutoffs now.

Checklist for the next six weeks

1. Set unit-based sales targets for November and December, not just revenue targets.
2. Confirm inventory arrival dates for Black Friday (November 27) and Cyber Monday (November 30).
3. Split your offers: sharper deals for value products, bundles or gifting for premium items.
4. Lock in carrier and 3PL pickup schedules and holiday cutoffs.
5. Plan ad budgets with room to scale on the biggest days.

How Atronia Innovations can help

We plan and run Q4 for brands and factories on Amazon, Walmart and TikTok Shop, including deals, ads, inventory and discounted shipping labels. Talk to our team about your holiday plan.

Sources

• Chain Drug Review — NRF forecasts holiday sales to top $1 trillion in 2026 (Oct 15, 2026)
• WWD via Yahoo Finance — NRF forecasts 4.2% US holiday sales gains (Oct 15, 2026)
• Home Textiles Today — NRF forecasts more than $1 trillion in holiday spending (Oct 15, 2026)
• NRF — Winter holiday data and trends

美国零售联合会（NRF）预计今年又是一个万亿美元级的假日季。2026 年 10 月 15 日，NRF 预测今年 11–12 月美国零售销售将增长 4.2%，达到 1.013 万亿美元，增速高于去年的 3.1%。其他机构发布的线上预测增速大约是这个数字的两倍。下面看看 NRF 怎么说、与其他预测相比如何，以及对卖家的意义。

此前我们整理过《Adobe、德勤和 eMarketer 的 2026 假日电商预测》，当时 NRF 的预测尚未发布，本文是补充。

NRF 的预测

NRF 假日季指标	2025 年实际	2026 年预测
假日季零售销售（11 月 1 日–12 月 31 日）	9,720 亿美元（+3.1%）	1.013 万亿美元（+4.2%）
季节性招聘	约 35.6 万人	32.5 万–37.5 万人

来源：Chain Drug Review（2026 年 10 月 15 日）、WWD（Yahoo Finance 转载，2026 年 10 月 15 日）和Home Textiles Today（2026 年 10 月 15 日）。NRF 的假日数据不含汽车经销商、加油站和餐饮。

• 一半是真实增长，一半是涨价。据 WWD 报道，近一半增长来自真实消费，其余来自通胀。Home Textiles Today 称真实增长约 2%，NRF 预计 2026 年核心商品通胀平均为 2.6%，高于 2025 年的 1.6%。
• 消费分化。NRF 首席经济学家 Mark Mathews 表示“消费分化正变得更加明显”，不同家庭的感受会差异很大。
• 仍然重视过节。NRF 总裁兼 CEO Matthew Shay 表示：“消费者在精打细算的同时，仍然优先考虑假日季消费。”

与线上预测对比

WWD 同时汇总了其他几家机构的预测。各家口径和时间段不同，但方向一致：线上增速将高于零售整体。

WWD 还引用了德勤的预测：2026 年 11 月至 2027 年 1 月，美国假日电商销售将达 3,161 亿–3,189 亿美元，增长 7.5%–8.4%，而零售总额增长 4%–4.8%。Adobe 预测 11–12 月美国线上消费 2,751 亿美元，增长 6.7%。

节日日历更紧凑

NRF 统计的假日季为 11 月 1 日至 12 月 31 日。对线上卖家来说，关键节点是 2026 年 11 月 26 日感恩节、11 月 27 日黑五和 11 月 30 日网一。感恩节相对较晚，网一到圣诞节不到四周，补货时间更少，物流延误的容错空间也更小。平台黑五周的入仓截止时间通常在 10 月，所以真正关键的决定是现在做，而不是 11 月下旬。

我们的解读

有增长，但一部分是涨价。NRF 的 4.2% 里约一半来自通胀，销量增速可能低于销售额增速。备货要按件数规划，而不只看金额。

线上将再次跑赢门店。上面所有线上预测都明显高于 NRF 的总体预测；9 月人口普查局数据也显示无店铺零售同比增长 8.2%，见我们的《美国 9 月零售数据》。确保广告、库存和客服能支撑到 12 月。

弄清你服务的是哪类消费者。消费分化意味着注重性价比的消费者会追逐折扣，而高收入群体会继续消费。价格敏感型产品需要有力的优惠，高端产品需要优质内容和快速配送。

人手可能更紧。按 NRF 区间的下限，季节性招聘可能少于去年的 35.6 万人。依赖第三方仓和承运商的卖家，请现在就确认对方的旺季产能和截单时间。

未来六周行动清单

1. 为 11–12 月设定按件数的销售目标，而不只是金额目标。
2. 确认黑五（11 月 27 日）和网一（11 月 30 日）前的到货时间。
3. 区分促销策略：性价比产品给更有力的折扣，高端产品做组合装或礼品方案。
4. 锁定承运商和第三方仓的揽收安排及假期截单时间。
5. 广告预算为大促当天预留加码空间。

Atronia Innovations 能帮你什么

我们为品牌和工厂规划和执行亚马逊、沃尔玛和 TikTok Shop 的 Q4，包括促销、广告、备货和折扣物流面单。欢迎联系我们的团队，聊聊你的旺季计划。

信息来源

• Chain Drug Review — NRF forecasts holiday sales to top $1 trillion in 2026（2026 年 10 月 15 日）
• WWD（Yahoo Finance 转载）— NRF forecasts 4.2% US holiday sales gains（2026 年 10 月 15 日）
• Home Textiles Today — NRF forecasts more than $1 trillion in holiday spending（2026 年 10 月 15 日）
• NRF — Winter holiday data and trends